Thursday, October 15, 2020

Let the (Redistricting) Games Begin





Before we discuss the games, this notice just came by email from the Commission on Appellate Court Appointments.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 15, 2020

Contact: Blanca Moreno

(602) 452-3308

Commission on Appellate Court Appointments to Select Replacement Candidate for Chair of Independent Redistricting Commission

PHOENIX – One of five finalists for appointment as the Chair of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) has withdrawn from consideration. Citing family circumstances, candidate Nicole Cullen withdrew on October 14, 2020. The Commission on Appellate Court Appointments (Nominating Commission) must submit five names for the four appointed members of the IRC to choose from when selecting the Independent Chair of the IRC.

The Nominating Commission may select the fifth candidate for the Independent Chair position at a meeting on October 20, 2020.

The Nominating Commission will hear in-person public comments on October 20, 2020 at 8:30 a.m. in Room 345 of the State Courts Building at 1501 W. Washington St. in downtown Phoenix. Public comments will be livestreamed at http://www.azcourts.gov/AZ-Supreme-Court/Live-Archived-Video.

For more information about the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, see https://www.azcourts.gov/jnc/IRC-Nominations.

*****

So, about those games... an apparent reason (if not the ONLY reason) that the applicants were screened so much earlier (about three months) this year than in 2010 seems to have been to give Republicans in the Arizona Legislature a distinct advantage from the start.

The Arizona Constitution, as amended by voters in Prop 106 (2000) states in pertinent part (Article 4, Part two, Section one (emphasis mine)):
(5) By January 8 of years ending in one, the commission on appellate court appointments or its designee shall establish a pool of persons who are willing to serve on and are qualified for appointment to the independent redistricting commission. The pool of candidates shall consist of twenty-five nominees, with ten nominees from each of the two largest political parties in Arizona based on party registration, and five who are not registered with either of the two largest political parties in Arizona.
(6) Appointments to the independent redistricting commission shall be made in the order set forth below. No later than January 31 of years ending in one, the highest ranking officer elected by the Arizona house of representatives shall make one appointment to the independent redistricting commission from the pool of nominees, followed by one appointment from the pool made in turn by each of the following: the minority party leader of the Arizona house of representatives, the highest ranking officer elected by the Arizona senate, and the minority party leader of the Arizona senate. Each such official shall have a seven-day period in which to make an appointment. Any official who fails to make an appointment within the specified time period will forfeit the appointment privilege. In the event that there are two or more minority parties within the house or the senate, the leader of the largest minority party by statewide party registration shall make the appointment.

From the Yellow Sheet Reports (October 9, 12 and 13):

(YS 10/9) The Commission on Appellate Court Appointments was still interviewing the 19 Republican candidates for the IRC at our deadline, but already approved its short list of the 10 Democratic finalists. Among them are political busybodies Ernest Calderon and Derrick Watchman, who both received the maximum 14 votes. They will be joined by Grant Buma, an engineer from Yavapai County; Bryan E. Cooperrider, a former professor from Coconino County; Donald E. Evans, a retired senior veterans affairs service representative from Maricopa County, Robert P. Kovitz, a Tucson Dem who has volunteered for several local campaigns; Shereen Lerner, a historian in Maricopa County; James H. Robbins, Jr., Vice President of Catholic Charities in Maricopa County; Maxine E. P. White, a Bank of America employee in Maricopa County and Teresa D. Wyatt, a former canvasser for Mo Udall and Gabby Giffords in Pima County. Candidates’ applications can be viewed on the Supreme Court website (LINK). Once the Commission narrows the Republicans to 10 finalists, Fann, Bowers, Bradley and Fernandez will each choose one IRC member, and the four partisans will select the independent chair from the five independent candidates approved yesterday.

(YS 10/12) BOWERS’ ACE

The final list of 25 independent redistricting candidates is set and if – or when – Bowers opts to pick the first IRC member, it could leave Democrats another step behind in the process. Many saw the last IRC’s composition as the result of a solid strategy by Dems. This time around, many regard the GOP as having outmaneuvered the Dems. The Commission on Appellate Court Appointments spent roughly nine hours interviewing 38 Republican and Democratic candidates on Friday, winnowing them down to 10 from each party (YS, 10/9). Just a day before, CACA finalized the list of five independents, one of whom will eventually serve as chair.

Rusty Bowers is currently the Republican Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives. THE game at hand is that the GOP expects, or at least figures the chances are higher than they are comfortable with that they will lose control of the House after the election.

The voters clearly envisioned the legislative leadership in each year ending in ONE would be the ones who appointed the four partisan redistricting commissioners. Republican vested interests apparently figured they needed to game the appointments to the AIRC, hence the application process began roughly three months earlier than last time.

Also from the 10/12 YS,
Former Speaker Kirk Adams told our reporter that picking the first commissioner gives the speaker a lot of “freedom” to make his choice. “There are no county restrictions at that point and there aren’t really any political restrictions either,” he said. Adams chose first in the 2011 redistricting, picking Republican Scott Freeman from Maricopa County. No more than two of the four partisan picks can be from the same political party or from the same county. Since the speaker makes the first pick, he is not bound by the IRC composition’s partisan and geographical requirements. Adams took until the last possible day to select Freeman on Jan 31, 2011 after interviewing the Republican candidates and working with House staff to figure out who fit his three-pronged approach, he said. His first criterion was, “Can this person count to three?” Adams said. “Three is the magic number on that commission.” Five individuals make up the IRC, so the independent chair holds the most power and is often the deciding vote. Adams said his second criterion was to find the candidate who had “the intellect to process data,” given how data-driven the IRC is. “And then the third one, which is just as important as the others, was someone that was reliable – reliably Republican,” he told our reporter. Once Bowers makes his pick, which railbirds speculate could happen this week or soon thereafter, Fernandez only has seven days to make her pick, and so the pressure on the minority leader immediately mounts. Indeed, Bowers’ first move would put Fernandez and Democrats under a time crunch. [Put another way, Bowers can stuff the House Democratic Leader, if his discretion is validated in litigation, into a box] They will only have a week to vet all 25 finalists and pick a Dem commissioner. Fernandez, of course, could theoretically throw everything off by choosing the second Republican on the IRC. Adams doesn’t think that would ever happen. “There would be a personal political price to pay from the party,” he told our reporter.
As noted above, the ball is in Bowers’ court. He can buck recent tradition, in which the speaker selects his or her pick in late January near the constitutional deadline. The speaker has until Jan. 31 to select a partisan choice among the 10 Republicans and 10 Democrats on the candidates list. Bowers has the option to wait until after the new legislative session starts before making his choice. If Dems won the majority this November, however, that new speaker would be a Democrat. Picking before the election allows Bowers to control the selection timeline. Once he picks, he sets off a cycle of week-long periods in which Fernandez, Fann and Bradley – in precisely this order – will also have to pick IRC commissioners. A spokesman for Bowers would not comment on when he would make his pick or who. “Speaker Bowers will be approaching this important constitutional role with the seriousness it deserves and reviewing the nominees closely,” spokesman Andrew Wilder told our reporter, noting that the list of nominees only became final late last week.
From YS 10/13,
Chad Campbell, the House Minority Leader during the last round of redistricting in 2011, said his chief priorities while making his pick to the commission were ensuring his choice would “fight for fair maps” and that commission had more than “just a bunch of white dudes up there.” Democrats this year will likely have the same goals while picking their appointees, he said, but a new factor is that control of the House and Senate may be hanging in the balance as leaders choose their appointees. Campbell said he worked with David Schapira, the Senate minority leader at the time, to figure out who each would choose for that cycle’s IRC. Being reflective of the state was a priority, Campbell told our reporter. He also looked at whether candidates knew Arizona well and understood communities of interest. Ultimately, Campbell picked Jose Herrera, a Latino from Maricopa County, and Schapira picked Linda McNulty, a white woman from Pima County. Geography is also a factor in the choice, he noted, as only two commissioners can come from the same county (not including the chair, who is chosen by the other four commissioners and can hail from any county). As noted yesterday, half the field of Democrats come from outside of Maricopa County, three of the 10 are women and only Teresa Wyatt checks both boxes. Other non-white men the Dems can choose from are: Derrick Watchman, a Native American from Apache County, Maxine White, a Black woman in Maricopa, Donald Evans, a Black man in Maricopa County, and Ernest Calderon, a Hispanic man from Maricopa County. Campbell speculated that litigation would be on the horizon if Bowers makes his pick after the election and Dems overtake House control. [The Arizona Eagletarian speculates that this could be the case even if Bowers makes his pick BEFORE the election] “If the majority flips, then something needs to be done to make sure the majority caucus gets to make the first pick,” Campbell said.
So, where does that leave us at the moment?

APS owned "independent" commissioner wannabe Thomas Loquvam is still on the list. This is HIGHLY problematic. The money flow was from APS to Loquvam. His lack of independence is certain. From the perspective of the spirit of the law, voters wanted to minimize partisan and other (DARK MONEY) influence in the redistricting process. This person must absolutely be disqualified. While the screening commission is meeting on Tuesday, they should give strong consideration to replacing him. Of course, unless they give advance notice of intent to do so, all they can do is talk about the idea hypothetically. 

But if they intend to continue gaming the process to incentivize and maximize ongoing conflict and litigation, they should also openly discuss how a potential chairman Loquvam will cost taxpayers a skyrocketing amount of extra funding.  

Gilbert teacher Nicole Cullen, no doubt a very fine person with qualifications that seemed to fit for a potential commission chair, has backed out. That's probably the smartest thing she could do when considering her family and her teaching career. I wish her all the best for both her family and her career.

Also, given that the provisions in the Arizona Constitution do not say anything about making commissioner picks in years ending in ZERO (2020). For that matter, it also doesn't say "FOR years ending in One." Therefore, the most prudent course for Bowers, if he is interested in preventing the unnecessary squandering of taxpayer funds, is to wait and see how things shake out in the election before making any rash decisions. 

By the way, if one intent of the screening committee was/is to give the chosen commissioners plenty of time to prepare for their term in office or to back out, that's a fine and noble motivation. However, that can still be done by waiting until the new legislative leadership is chosen after the election. As I understand it, those leadership elections take place as soon as possible after the election, and before new members of the legislature are sworn in to office.


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