The last couple of weeks, after citizen protests began at the Capitol, Arizonans have begun to grasp the tangible ramifications of electing Scrooge McDucey and are becoming outraged.
To consider the feasibility of a recall movement, first evaluate the bottom line facts. From Friday's post,
That 25 percent threshold, according to the official canvass of the 2014 general election is (1,506,315 X .25) = 376,579 valid signatures. So, if for every person (man, woman, child) that showed up yesterday, they (or somebody) collected at least 400 valid signatures each, we would get the governor back on the ballot well before 2018. That's not an impossible goal. Difficult for sure, but not impossible.From the Arizona Secretary of State's website, the current voter registration numbers for Arizona as a whole:
- Total 3,247,175
- Americans Elect Party 461
- Democrats 933,883
- Green 5,051
- Libertarian 27,706
- Republican 1,113,991
- Other/Independent 1,167,083
The total number of voters who cast ballots in November 2014 equaled 1,537,671 (47.52 percent).
Consider the scale of the effort it would take to collect more than 400,000 signatures. Typically, at least a 20 percent margin of error (cushion above the 376,579 valid signature requirement) can be reasonably expected. That puts the target at 450,000 signatures that should be collected.
To fund the logistics necessary to accomplish that goal, I would think at least a couple of millions of dollars must be raised.
In the wake of the abusive budget process, I'm confident there are plenty of citizens ready to jump in and try to make it happen. I don't know how many of those have sketched out what it will take to succeed.
If McDucey pivots and moderates his first year budget cutting agenda, that could take the edge off of the collective energy that is now building. If he does not, then it becomes a matter of organizing the people and the resources to make it happen.
Expect that since the course McDucey's on is desired by the Koch Empire, he will be able to raise substantial funds to save his ass (and his elected office).
The first thing opponents of a recall will try to do is infiltrate whatever committee might form for the recall and cause confusion and division. This much is a given. It's not a maybe. Oh, and don't expect McDucey to be intimidated by this.
Now, with all of this in mind, let's see what happens over the next month or so.