Arizona Eagletarian

Arizona Eagletarian

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Redistricting -- First real test of new district competitiveness

At 5:00pm today, the deadline for Congressional and legislative candidates to file nominating petition signatures with the Arizona Secretary of State passed. The first test, therefore, of whether or to what degree the new districts are competitive comes in finding out which races are either already decided or will be decided when the votes in Arizona's August 2012 primary election are counted.

That test is whether any opposing candidates have stepped up in a given district. My initial analysis, simply a first glance, also does not take into account the candidates running on Libertarian, Green or the "Americans Elect"* party tickets.

There is only ONE Congressional district in which the major party candidate will face NO opponent from the other major party. In the Phoenix area Voting Rights district, Arizona's 7th Congressional District, incumbent Ed Pastor has only has a primary election opponent, Rebecca DeWitt.

Of the thirty seats in the Arizona Senate, it appears that thirteen of them are all but decided now or will be after the primary. Six of them will apparently be filled by Republicans and seven by Democrats. Those districts are:

    • LD 1     Steve Pierce (R) (Prescott area)
    • LD 2     Linda Lopez (D)  (Tucson)
    • LD 3     Olivia Cajero Bedford / Maria Garcia (both Dems, Bedford is an incumbent) 
    • LD 4     Lynne Pancrazi (D) (Yuma)
    • LD 7     Jack Jackson Jr (D) (Window Rock)
    • LD 12   Andy Biggs (R) (Gilbert)
    • LD 13   John Nelson / Don Shooter (both Republican incumbents) in primary
    • LD 15   Nancy Barto (R) (NE Phoenix)
    • LD 19   Anna Tovar (D) (Tolleson)
    • LD 22   Judy Burges (R) (Sun City West)
    • LD 23   Michele Reagan (R) (Scottsdale)
    • LD 29   Steve Gallardo (D) (Tolleson)
    • LD 30   Robert Meza / Raquel Teran (both Dems, Meza is an incumbent) (West Phoenix)

This situation does not preclude the possibility that an opposing major party candidate may register as a write-in candidate and possibly qualify for the general election ballot by getting enough votes in the primary.

This also does not reflect the likelihood that some brave minority party candidate will have qualified for the primary ballot without there having a snowball's chance in Arizona in August. I have not done that level of analysis thus far.

The following races for the Arizona House of Representatives will also almost certainly be decided in the primary, if they aren't already decided:

    • LD 1     Republican
    • LD 3     Democratic
    • LD 4     Democratic
    • LD 7     Democratic
    • LD 12   Republican
    • LD 13   Republican
    • LD 19   Democratic
    • LD 22   Republican
    • LD 23   Republican
    • LD 29   Democratic
    • LD 30   Democratic
Additionally, I did not list districts (for the House races) in which one of the major parties has only one candidate qualified. There are, of course, two House seats for each legislative district. 

Again, this does not preclude a political party further assessing a given district, finding a candidate, registering her or him and running a successful write-in campaign for the primary.

This analysis also does not either look at or consider whether any particular candidate is up to the job or otherwise qualified or not to represent the people of Arizona.

This is just a first glance at the upcoming primary and general election in Arizona.


*The Americans Elect Party of Arizona website has for a motto: Let's make Arizona less of a shithole

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